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英国

Brexit uncertainty spurs Bank of England to cut growth forecasts
退欧不确定性拖累英国经济前景

英国央行下调了今明两年的核心增长预测。与美联储和欧洲央行不同,英国央行没有显示通过降息来应对疲软前景的迹象。

The Bank of England has flagged a one-in-three chance that the UK economy will shrink at the start of next year as Brexit uncertainty and global trade tension hit growth.

英国央行(Bank of England)认为英国经济有三分之一的几率在明年初出现萎缩,原因是英国退欧不确定性和全球贸易紧张影响经济增长。

Even without taking into account the rising possibility of a no-deal Brexit, the BoE cut its central forecast for growth this year and next.

即使不考虑日益上升的无协议退欧可能性,英国央行也下调了其对今年和明年增长的核心预测。

It predicted output would rise 1.3 per cent in both 2019 and 2020 even if it were to cut interest rates, as markets expect. The BoE had forecast in May that output would grow by 1.5 per cent and 1.6 per cent respectively.

它预计2019年和2020年的产出都将增长1.3%,即使它像市场预期的那样降息。今年5月,英国央行曾预测产出将分别增长1.5%和1.6%。

It added in its August inflation report there was a 33 per cent probability of negative growth in the first quarter of 2020 if interest rates remained unchanged — the highest chance of a contraction it has seen since the Brexit referendum in August 2016.

它在8月通胀报告中补充说,如果利率保持不变,2020年第一季度出现负增长的几率为33%——这是英国央行自2016年8月(退欧公投过后)以来看到的最高萎缩几率。

Mark Carney, the BoE governor, dismissed suggestions it was guilty of the “gloomster” attitude decried by Boris Johnson, the new prime minister. “It is clear the level of uncertainty is affecting business,” Mr Carney said. “It is also clear there has been a substantial shortfall in investment. It is beginning to become clear that the trade response to lower sterling has begun to fade.”

英国央行行长马克•卡尼(Mark Carney)驳斥了新首相鲍里斯•约翰逊(Boris Johnson)对于该行有“悲观失望者”态度之嫌的谴责。“显然,不确定性正在影响商业,”卡尼表示,“同样显而易见的是,投资出现了重大缺口。正在开始变得明显的是,英镑走低对贸易的刺激已经开始消退。”

The BoE’s central forecasts were premised on a smooth Brexit that would boost the economy. They show growth recovering to 2.3 per cent in 2021 and inflation overshooting its target, rising to 2.4 per cent on a three-year horizon.

英国央行核心预测的前提是英国退欧平稳实施,对经济增长起到提振作用。预测显示,经济增长将在2021年恢复到2.3%,而通胀超过其目标,在三年后上升至2.4%。

The bank acknowledged this forecast overstated inflation because it builds in current exchange rates and market expectations that interest rates will fall to cushion the shock of a potential EU exit on October 31 without a withdrawal agreement. “In the event of a no-deal, no-transition Brexit, sterling would likely fall, the risk premiums on UK assets would rise and volatility would spike higher,” Mr Carney said.

该行承认,这一预测夸大了通胀,因为它纳入了当前汇率和市场预期,即利率将下降以缓解10月31日潜在无协议退欧的冲击。“如果发生无协议、无过渡期的英国退欧,英镑很可能会下跌,英国资产的风险溢价将会上升,波动性将会加剧,”卡尼表示。

Unlike the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, the BoE showed no signs of responding to the weakening outlook by cutting interest rates.

与美联储(Federal Reserve)和欧洲央行(ECB)不同,英国央行没有显示出通过降息来应对疲软前景的迹象。

Instead, the MPC voted unanimously to hold rates at 0.75 per cent, and signalled that borrowing costs would eventually need to rise to keep inflation at its 2 per cent target — given an orderly Brexit and a recovery in global growth.

相反,货币政策委员会(MPC)一致投票决定将利率维持在0.75%,并发出信号表明,借款成本最终将需要上升以使通胀保持在2%的目标水平——前提是英国退欧有序完成,全球经济增长出现复苏。

It also stuck to its position that interest rates could move in either direction in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

它还坚持其立场,即在无协议退欧的情况下,利率可能下调也可能上调。

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